The Day of Reckoning; Russia v Israel
Tuesday, June 14, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, while visiting Israel, stated that working with Israel will help reduce the EU’s dependence on Russia.
“The Kremlin has used our dependency on Russian fossil fuels to blackmail us,” von der Leyen went on to say. “Since the beginning of the war, Russia has deliberately cut off its gas supplies to Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, and Dutch and Danish companies, in retaliation for our support to Ukraine.” She added, “The Kremlin’s behaviour only strengthens our resolve to break free of our dependence on Russian fossil fuels. For instance, we are exploring ways to step up our energy cooperation with Israel.”
Van de Leyen referred to the EuroAsia Interconnector underwater power cable, connecting Israel to the EU electric grid and the proposed EastMed Pipeline.
More importantly, the following day, Wednesday, June 15, Israel, Egypt and the European Union signed a memorandum of understanding in Cairo that will initiate Israel supplying natural gas to an energy-hungry Europe.
While it’s been a long time coming, Wednesday’s historical agreement heralded the day of reckoning for Israel, with the giant from the North committed to preserving its energy dominance of Europe and defending its economy at home.
The Israel EU understanding is a ‘Big Deal’ that points a dagger at the heart of Russia’s economic, social and military survival. This is no exageration. Russia will see this as a declaration of war, knowing its survival as a nation-state hangs in the balance.
Russia will use every diplomatic ruse to intimidate Israel, and that process has already started with Russia denying Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan and its joint Russia-Syria air patrols of Israel’s Northern border and, recently, Russia’s most stern condemnation of Israel’s latest air strikes on Syrian targets.
While simultaneously preparing for a Middle East war that would strangle Israel and threaten Europe’s underbelly, game over.
When the day of reckoning actually comes Israel will need to take the lessons from the Ukraine Russia war while at the same time not allowing Russian inefficiency to mislead Israel’s military command.
A war between Israel and Russia will be very different from the Ukraine conflict. While Putin will not make the same mistake twice in his strategic planning nor will Russia be facing a foe of limited ability.
In Israel he will find an implacable and decisive opponent fighting for its life there will be no confused multiplicity of objectives or the adoption of half-measures. Should Israel find its back to the wall it will use all of its military resources to defeat the invader including the targeting of Mother Russia itself.
In the final analysis Russia and its allies see an attack upon Israel as an instrument of policy and economic survival where as Israel will have no option than to recognise the lethal nature of Russia’s aggression and act accordingly.
A reckoning indeed but for whom.
