Iran and the China Connection !
While Israel astounds the world in its near-total dominance over Iran in the latest exchange of firepower between the two belligerent states Israel having previously sidelined Hezbollah in the North and crippled Hamas in the south and destabilised the now defunct Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria there remains a two-headed question what will America and China’s response be to a castrated Islamic Republic of Iran.
In the case of the United States, much depends on whether President Donald Trump is channelling his isolationist, non-interventionist alter ego or his nationalist-interventionist side of his character. Either way, the man is unpredictable and therefore makes it hard to predict which way he will go as the Iran-Israel conflict continues to rage. At the same time, America is going through a period of soul-searching, no longer confident in its hegemonic role in the world. It now indulges a congenital ambivalence when confronted with that role. Caught between its moral and intellectual deficiencies, it can no longer act decisively on the world stage. Torn between force and diplomacy, realism and idealism, power and legitimacy, it acts indecisively at a moment when single-minded leadership is most needed by its allies and friends in a hostile world. This leaves the Jewish State to do all the heavy lifting on its own, punching above its weight while the world’s superpower attempts to have its ‘cake and eat it too’.
In the meantime, the emerging superpower China is quietly watching events unfold between Israel and Iran while second-guessing the Americans. Over recent years, China’s footprint in the Middle East has become more visible while maintaining a low profile.
China now imports half its oil from the region, specifically half of its annual needs, making energy security a top priority in the Middle East. China is currently building a crude oil war chest amid Regional tensions. It views Iran as an essential link in its energy security, and any perceived threat to that security will be met with military intervention of some sort and a permanent presence in the area to follow.
Israel will be keeping a close eye on China’s reaction to the current conflict, monitoring both the critical and seemingly irrelevant developments unfolding between Beijing and Tehran.
Seriously interesting times we live in!
