Chinas Ace in the Hole ?

America is now policing the Strait of Hormuz and deciding who will enter and exit the strait. This gunboat diplomacy raises the spectre of China inserting its own Naval contingent in the Strait of Hormuz in order to assure safe passage for its ships in and out of the Naval blockade.

If this were to happen, it would immediately raise the temperature in the ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran. The blockade would, in effect, lead to a diplomatic stalemate, resulting in China-US relations breaking down altogether.

China’s national interest would be the basic criterion for any direct involvement in the Strait of Hormuz. The introduction of ships of war, in the first instance, would be to support their interests, based on the assessment that America would avoid potential conflict with China, thereby delivering a psychological victory and boosting their role in the wider world. I believe China is weighing this option as it assesses its national interests. This would be an immense gamble, serving as a strategy for Xi Jinping to regain the initiative he believes they had lost since Israel and the United States launched their air offensive some two months ago.

China could also play the Taiwan Strait card, betting on the U.S., faced with tensions on two fronts thousands of miles apart, might be convinced to explore a political solution with Iran and a settlement regarding Taiwan’s sovereignty.

This could be China’s Ace in the Hole or an unpleasant Fortune Cookie. Either way, the strategic element would be full of surprises.