How to Defeat China in the Pacific !
The dilemma created by the United States’ relative decline and the continuing rise of China as a serious threat to U.S. hegemony can no longer be ignored, on the one hand, as America’s share of world power has been slowly declining. At the same time, China has grown economically, militarily, and diplomatically over the past few decades. Still, America’s absolute strength, especially in the technological field, is superior to that of Communist China. The second is that the United States’ laissez-faire nature of American society probably gives it a better chance of readjusting to changing circumstances than a rigid and controlled economy. This, in turn, depends upon a national leadership that can adapt and understand the more extensive processes at work in the world today and is aware of both the strong and weak points of the U.S. position vis-à-vis China.
Although the United States is at present still in a class of its own economically and perhaps militarily, it cannot necessarily confront a head-on conflict with China with extended supply lines over Taiwan in the China Sea. The outcome cannot be assured, and an American defeat would likely mean the end of Pax Americana as we know it.
This poses a vital question if the above is to be accepted as a highly likely outcome. How can the U.S. confront China and emerge victorious? The answer lies in the sands of the Middle East. It’s oil China’s Achilles heel. China currently imports 75% of its oil needs from various countries in the Middle East, and demand is expected to rise by 1.1% during 2025 to 765 million metric tons.
America does not need to risk everything on a war in the South China Sea and ultimately invest its naval power to rescue Taiwan from China’s clutches. It only needs to cut off China’s oil supply at the source to bring China to a grinding halt. However, as China would be well aware of this weakness in the supply chain, should a war break out between it and its nemesis, the United States. China will be looking to secure naval, air facilities and ultimately, boots on the ground within the region. Since Israel’s demolition of Iran’s proxies and Russia’s virtual withdrawal from Syria due to the conflict in Ukraine and the consequent overthrow of the Assad regime in Damascus, despite Russia and Iran making efforts to reemerge in the Levant, China cannot afford to leave their energy security in the hands of dubious allies.
Other than America, only one country stands in the way of China achieving economic and military dominance in the Middle East: Israel. While the Americans can always go home, that luxury does not apply to the Jewish State. They have only two choices: surrender or fight for their very existence.
What America does or does not do will ultimately set the stage for the final battle and depend on the wisdom of the governments in Washington and Peking. This is a big ask at the best of times.
