Israel, Turkeys Ace in the Hole!

While the Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has taken Aleppo, the second major city in Syria and the financial hub of the country, its advance has been halted on the outskirts of Hama, a significant town considered an Assad stronghold. The setback for the Syrian rebels is being allotted to Russian and Syrian air strikes and Iranian proxies moving into Syria from Iraq.

The question has to be asked: Who has the most to gain from a concerted rebel offensive threatening the stability of the Assad regime? While complex, the answer can be answered in short: Erdogan’s Turkey has the most to gain. Erdogan has concluded that Iran’s proxy Hezbollah has been severely mauled in its war with Israel, and Iran lacks the depth of military resources to fill the loss. Erdogan also likely believes the incoming Trump administration will favour Turkey taking a more aggressive approach to its Middle East ambitions. Stifling Turkey’s historic adversaries, Russia and Iran, from undermining its policies and forcing it into accepting foreign policy deals that run contrary to its perceived self-interest.

This brings us to the Ace in the Hole. Suppose Turkey can overcome its hostility towards the Jewish State, albeit for the short term, and mend ties with Israel. In that case, it will have the best chance of achieving its interests in Syria and beyond for the foreseeable future. Erdogan’s opportunistic instincts will shape his decisions accordingly. Erdogan will continue to pit Russia and Iran against American interests in Afrin, Manbij and Idlib in north-western Syria to get what he wants.

While possibly relying on Israel in the south to hold Hezbollah back from interceding and keep Iran in check, allowing Turkey to become the beneficiary in any possible realignment in Syria.