Time For a Reality Check…!
There is much excitement and expectation with the Trump dream team about to take the reigns of office in the 47th Presidential administration. The expectation’s are high with elect Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Defence Secretary Pete Hesgeth, Elise Stafanik Ambassador to the United Nations and Mike Huckabee Ambassador to Israel. All of these nominees are staunch supporters of the Jewish State.
This would bode well for Israel in normal times; however, these are not normal times, nor are they predictable times. President-Elect Donald Trump will certainly change course in foreign affairs from the last four years under the Biden-Harris administration and, for the first two years, will give some shade of green light to Israel in its efforts to defeat Hamas, Hezbollah and ultimately Iran.
Then will come the reality check where Israel’s self-interest and the United States diverge. Trump will be ready to throw his full weight behind a two-state solution, thereby guaranteeing his future legacy as the President who brought peace between Israel and the fake Palestinians, delivering a Nobel Peace Prize along the way.
Once before, in the Yom Kippur War, Israel had been subjected to a test of strength. If it had lost that war, it would have been carved up in accordance with the ambitions of the enemy coalition and elements of the United States State Department, and Israel’s history would have been at an end. Fifty years later, on October 7 2023, Israel was again threatened with that fate. Israel’s existence hung by a thread for nine months while the Biden Presidency played false with the Jewish State. Yet Israel emerged from this test of realpolitik a changed nation, scarcely recognisable from the one that reeled on social unrest and divided loyalty during the protests over Judicial reform. This was a double test because, unlike the situation in 1973 – the external test of strength was accompanied by a domestic one. Not only in its war policy did Israel find itself caught in the crossfire of American Iranian diplomacy, but this crossfire ran right through domestic politics, and Israel was and, to a degree, still is fighting for its existence in a state of internal division, pulled one way and another between reform and reaction.
When the last Champagne bottle has been emptied, Israel would do well to take a reality check!
I’d say this prediction makes a lot of sense and should cause us in Israel to be simultaneously excited but wary. At the end of the day, today more than ever, the ball is in our court and a lot of what happens down the road will be determined by how committed and focused we are to clearly articulating and fighting for our vision. Trump, and even more so the team he has filled his cabinet with, will support us, but won’t be more Catholic than the Pope. It’s up to us.
As I am sure we both know, the Trump nominees are ultimately there to articulate and carry out the President’s policies. Israel’s political freedom is simply the area within which the nation can do what it likes. If it is prevented by outside elements from carrying out its desired policies, it is to that degree unfree, and if the area within which Israel could do what it wished was legally contracted beyond a certain minimum, it could be described as being enslaved.
The bottom line is that a two-state solution spells Israel’s loss of sovereignty.
Shmuel, appreciate your contribution to a most serious debate on Israel’s future.