China holds the key to ending the war in Ukraine.
As long as China perceives their national interests are being served in the current Russian adventure in Ukraine, the war will continue. Putin’s bellicose statements will increase hostility towards those nations prepared to oppose his geopolitical agenda.
That support will be withdrawn when it no longer provides a vehicle for China’s established interests.
Putin has unwittingly subordinated Russia’s interests to those of China and, in doing so, has furthered the cause of China in achieving the dominance of the future world order, which China’s Xi Jinping understands as a universal hierarchy not an equilibrium of competing states. But rather of tributary relationships with China.
China seeks to dominate psychologically by its economic achievements and its growing military might to achieve its strategic goals while inducing respect for the Middle Kingdom.
Xi Jinping is determined to overthrow American hegemony worldwide and believes China cannot maintain its newfound role as the emerging superpower of the 21st century unless it becomes internationally engaged.
This is where Russia Putin’s foray into Ukraine serves China’s systematic undermining of American preeminence and thus American security until the situation escalates into a more significant conflict that China is not yet prepared to enter into. Should the conflict spiral out of control, China will withdraw its support and pressure Russia to negotiate. China is not ready for a purely military definition that would inevitably descend into premature confrontation.
We live in interesting times.