The World is on the Threshold of War !
The illusion of harmony among nations became fashionable after the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989. This false spring very quickly dissipated as the breakdown in law and order took hold of one country after another, leading to conflict among states, the re-emergence of the Left in the guise of woke ideology, and Islamic fundamentalism. This was followed by the assertiveness of a rising China and an America that doesn’t quite know what its role is in the 21st century.
Leaving China aside for the moment. Islam has become the greatest threat to Western civilisation via massive Muslim immigration into Western European countries and now the United States of America. At the same time, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses an existential threat to the old world order supported by Russia and China. Add to this mix Erdogan’s Turkey, and the world is treading on eggshells.
With the recent overthrow of Assad in Syria courtesy of Sunni Turkey and Israel’s demolition of Iran’s proxies Hamas and Hezbollah, Shia Iran finds itself pushed out of the Levant, if only temporarily. Leaving Israel and Turkey facing off in Syria. While a conflict between the two would dwarf anything seen in the region. It’s time to confront the Elephant in the room. Xi Jinping’s China looms large over the Middle East as the largest consumer of Middle Eastern oil; trade with the region has tripled during the past twenty years while China has expanded its role in regional peace, security, and diplomacy. It has no intentions of stopping there with its perceived self-interest, looking to expand its influence across the board. China’s ambition for the Middle East is to see the United States withdraw its largess and military power from the area. China sees this as necessary to maintain its energy security.
Up until now, China has maintained a relatively detached position and avoided taking sides with regional powers. That’s about to change. As China looks towards Taiwan, it wants to secure its access to its economic lifeblood, oil. That means boots on the ground, naval facilities, and airpower.
Keeping China from securing those facilities are Israel and America. China sees the U.S. as no longer willing to make the national sacrifice necessary to confront China over these issues. As for Israel, they are aware the Jewish State has nowhere to flee and will ultimately fight or die.
Over the next twelve months, as Ukraine is moved from the chess board, Putin’s Russia will look to regain its influence in Syria and beyond, placing further stress on Israel-Russia relations. Syria is a future powder keg, with Iran, Turkey, Russia, China, and proxies all holding a flame to the wick.
Leaving the world on the threshold of war!
Certainly, a worrying mix of countries jostling for control in your excellent article brings it into sharp focus!
Yochanan, your genuine concerns are much appreciated.