The last thing Israel needs is a Pax Tartarica on its northern doorstep.
Joint Russian Syrian air patrols on Israel’s northern border commenced this Monday and has raised varying opinions as to why Russia has chosen now to change the dynamics of the Israel Russia understanding first muted in early 2017.
Israel has carried out hundreds if not thousands of airstrikes on Syrian targets since 2017 with varying degrees of success while Russia has chosen a benign policy of wait and see. The Russian airforce has had ample time to assess the IDF’s combat capability up close while probing Israel’s political will to protect the integrity of its borders.
Russia understands Israel’s air campaign has been a dramatic vindication of the attack by paralysation. They know that Syrian airforce assets and Iranian ground forces have been constantly harassed not only by the superiority of personnel and equipment but by the sheer number of Israeli operations leading to the inability of the Syrian and Iranian’s to consolidate their forward-thinking.
Israel has successfully exploited the Russia Israel understanding and, most probably, to the uttermost limits of Russias Middle East interests.
Maybe Putin believes now is the time to define the master-servant relationship that appeals to his autocratic nature. Other factors cannot be dismissed out of hand, such as the current Ukraine situation, and Putin could be sending Israel a guarded message to stay neutral on this issue.
Whatever the reason, Israel must take advantage of Russia’s underlying political, social, economic, and cultural weakness inherent in the Russian polyglot while endeavoring to maintain the status quo.
Its imperative Israel understands Russia will go to great lengths to assure the Jewish State of its mutual values in supporting Israel’s sphere of interest to lull her into a false sense of security. At that moment, it becomes Russia’s victim and prey.
The last thing Israel needs is a Pax Tartarica on its northern doorstep.
