Turkey and Israel an Inevitable Conflict in the Making!

On December 8 2024, Syrian dictator Bashar Assad made an ignominious retreat from Damascus after fifty-three years of his family’s autocratic rule came to an abrupt end at the hands of disparate rebel forces led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a proscribed terrorist group. The speed of the regime collapse exposed the weakness of Assad’s allies, Russia and Iran, to support their Syrian asset due to Russia’s ongoing involvement in Ukraine and Iran’s catastrophic loss of its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, to the war with Israel.

The fall of Assad ended Iranian and Russian influence in the region for now while presenting an opportunity for Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan to fill the vacuum left by Putin and Ali Hosseini Khamenei.

Erdogan, through the overthrow of the Assad family, finds himself free from recent Iranian and Russian hegemony. Erdogan can regain the momentum he cherishes in establishing Turkey’s leadership in the Middle East, presenting an alternative to a Shia Iran contrasting two opposing choices for the Middle East. One Sunni, the other Shia. Neither Arabic.

Turkey, by supporting the rebel forces in their war with Assad, has potentially negated the Kurdish PKK threat to its national cohesion. At the same time, Ankara is emerging as the primary challenger to Tehran’s desire to dominate the region. Everything post-December eight is being recalibrated, with Turkey reviving its leadership credentials. Erdogan is setting up a future confrontation, if necessary, with Iran in the east and Israel to the south.

The wild card in all this will be the incoming Trump administration as it juggles its self-interest between the Jewish State and Turkey, a Nato Allie perceived as the new ‘strong man’ on the block. Trump will come under extreme pressure from the State Department to favour Erdogans Turkey in any showdown with the Jewish State.

2026 is the most likely time for the inevitable conflict between Israel and Turkey. In the meantime, we can expect to see a wounded Islamic Republic of Iran turn its attention towards Saudi Arabia and nuclear capability asap.